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Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%. It still lands the President near the bottom of a list of historical approval ratings for presidents seeking reelection just ahead of their nominating conventions. Where is Mr. Biden’s best state poll result today, compared with the 2016 result? And they weren’t as great for Mr. Biden as the state polls, raising some questions. There were a lot of polls. The rest of the country stays strong for Biden. Those states remain close enough that Mr. Trump remains competitive. We often focus on the battleground states that decided the last election and seem likeliest to decide the next one. Why the big difference? Global Strategy Group/GBAO/Navigator Research, Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. Arizona is a state where a poll of registered voters will overstate Democratic support quite a bit because it has a large and heavily Democratic, but relatively low-turnout, Latino vote. The good news for Mr. Biden: Ipsos, Data For Progress and Global Strategy Group/GBAO/Navigator Research showed him with a comfortable lead and holding his ground — or gaining — compared with prior surveys. This is around the time when convention bounces start to diminish. Together, winning those states would probably put Mr. Biden well over 300 electoral votes. Odds and ends Morning Consult had a relatively weak result for Mr. Biden in Minnesota, though there’s plenty of other recent polling there showing Mr. Biden with a wider lead. They were awfully good for Mr. Biden. Even if you assume these pollsters tend to produce results that tilt to the left, they still support the idea of a highly competitive race. Unlike in Iowa, demographic changes are also on Mr. Biden’s side. Joe Biden and President Trump are preparing for the first debate, in which Mr. Trump will inevitably face questions about a Times report on his taxes. How is it possible for the race to teeter on the edge between a landslide and a close contest? Kamala Harris says appointing Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court would imperil health care and abortion rights. A bonanza of polls, but winding up at the same place. Question wording. Isabella Grullón Paz contributed reporting. your own coalition of battleground states. Try building your own coalition of battleground states to see potential outcomes. But there’s really just no serious evidence to support the idea that these voters exist in meaningful numbers, and there was no such evidence in 2016, either. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. It is 4.0 points among registered voters and 5.4 points for results for registered voters in the battleground states. NBC/Marist polls showed him with a significant lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s not a forecast or a prediction. If you’ve been following along here, you’ll have noticed that many of the states with the biggest shifts toward Mr. Biden have been relatively white states in the North or Upper Midwest, like Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Notably, like in August's survey, Biden is again recording record support with white voters for a Democratic presidential candidate. While he and Mr. Biden are competing aggressively for traditional swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, the poll suggests that Mr. Biden has assembled a coalition that could be formidable enough to jeopardize Mr. Trump in historically Republican parts of the South and Midwest. Today, we got polls from two states that Donald J. Trump won handily in 2016, and they’re an important reminder of the wide range of possibilities in this election. It found Cal Cunningham up by 10 points against the Republican incumbent, Thom Tillis, in North Carolina, and even found Senator Lindsey Graham locked in a tight race with Jaime Harrison in South Carolina. The reason is simple: If Mr. Biden were to win them, he has probably won already. The Monmouth poll shows no signs of that weakness today, with Mr. Biden leading by 26 points among Hispanic voters, comparable to Hillary Clinton’s performance four years ago. The problem is that one week of respondents was relatively favorable to Mr. Biden, just by chance, while another was relatively favorable to President Trump. A new Times/Siena poll Sunday found him ahead by eight points, and a new ABC News/Washington Post poll had similar findings. Most say she is qualified to be president should that be necessary (57%). But the state’s white working-class population remains staunchly Republican. Tip: The width in the code can be adjusted to best fit your space. Florida would be called by around 8 p.m., and Texas could be the state that makes Mr. Biden the president-elect. After all, Mrs. Clinton probably would have traded a few points nationwide for greater support in the Midwest. From there, any other flipped battleground state would get him over the top. With likely independent voters, Biden leads by 21 points, 57% to 36%. And a majority, 62%, say her selection does not have much effect on their vote. We’ll get a lot more data this weekend, including a new Times/Siena national poll, the rest of the ABC/Washington Post poll, and almost certainly more. Seventy percent of Biden voters say the coronavirus is critically important vs. 24% of Trump voters. We did see a pair of national polls with Mr. Biden up by seven points, more or less consistent with our average. Trump lands ahead of Jimmy Carter (33% approval) and George H.W. Georgia and Iowa might be competitive, but for Mr. Biden victories there would probably merely be icing on the cake: If he has won them, he’s almost certainly already won other battleground states like Florida and Pennsylvania, on track to a total nearing 400 electoral votes. Jorgensen pulls in 5%, while Hawkins gets 2%. In contrast, the state polls in the last week most certainly do not suggest that the race is moving toward the president, or that there’s a six-point race nationally. Morning Consult decided to put the theory to the test, and on Monday released the results of a new experiment. The 30% who call her selection excellent outpaces the share who said so in CNN polling on John Edwards in 2004, Biden in 2008, Joe Lieberman in 2000 or Tim Kaine in 2016. If this recent difference persists, we’ll really dive in. Status of the polls at the end of the day: Waiting to see how Supreme Court politics will reshape the race. On top of that, Hispanic voters are harder to reach in general. Mr. Trump has maintained an enduring advantage over Mr. Biden on economic issues, and that extends to all three states in the Times poll. To this point, polling in these states has been highly competitive. Two polls, two substantial Biden leads. At times, these polls have suggested that Joe Biden is faring extremely well. The polls we did get largely reinforced the big picture: a solid Biden lead, but with President Trump keeping it somewhat closer in the battleground states likeliest to decide the election. Sometimes, that summary will be “nothing much happened,” and you can go about your day. Majorities of Biden supporters (57% in each case) call health care and race relations extremely important, while only about 1 in 5 Trump backers agree (20% on health care, 22% on race relations). Today, U.S.C. In the battleground states, though, voters' views on the two candidates are almost even: 52% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, 54% of Trump. But it serves as a simple reminder that there’s still a wide range of possible results on Nov. 3. If no candidate receives more than 50%, the top two will advance to a runoff. State of the race at the end of the day A clear Biden advantage, but still searching for a comfortable lead in the 270th electoral vote. An early Supreme Court tidbit. Both candidates are viewed favorably by 45% in those states. Close races in Georgia, Iowa and Texas show President Trump’s vulnerability and suggest that Joseph Biden has assembled a formidable coalition, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. So why release bad news? Do you think that every eligible voter in Georgia will have a fair chance to participate in this November’s election? It also offered some promising news for Democrats in their pursuit of the Senate. There weren’t many national polls today, but the handful we did get were largely consistent with their prior results and with a fairly stable race. Supporters of President Trump during his visit to Midland, Texas, in July. That’s certainly plausible, especially since Mr. Biden has tended to make his largest gains among white voters, who are disproportionately overrepresented in the battleground states, while struggling to match Mrs. Clinton’s numbers among nonwhite voters. Incumbent Republican senators are leading their Democratic challengers in two of the three states polled. Men favor Mr. Trump by eight points. Of course, it’s not necessarily a bad trade for Mr. Biden. Think twice about that Biden lead in North Carolina Today there was a Suffolk University poll showing Mr. Biden up by four points in North Carolina, which would be a strong showing in a state where our averages suggest a dead heat. The polls we did get largely reinforced the big picture: a solid Biden lead, but with President Trump keeping it somewhat closer in the battleground states likeliest to decide the election. Here's the truth, Most memorable moments from past presidential debates, Biden reacts to Trump's nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, Pelosi: Our concern in the Supreme Court is the Affordable Care Act, GOP senator: We'll have a peaceful transfer in January 2025, Breaking down absentee ballots and when they are counted, Trump nominates Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court, Trump campaign falsely accuses Biden of teleprompter use, How Trump laid groundwork for election result mayhem, HHS secretary spotted without mask at Rose Garden event, Trump's border wall vs Biden's focus on asylum, State election official sounds alarm over 'secrecy envelope', Bloomberg pouring big money into major battleground state, his choice of California Sen. Kamala Harris, Here are the words defining the 2020 presidential campaign. (CNN)Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump among registered voters has significantly narrowed since June, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, even as the former vice president maintains an advantage over the President on several top issues and his choice of California Sen. Kamala Harris as a running mate earns largely positive reviews. The poll, conducted by phone among likely voters from Sept. 16 to 22, had a margin of sampling error of four percentage points for Texas and five in Iowa and Georgia. Many state pollsters have addressed this since then. You can find these states at the bottom of our poll average table on this page. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters from Sept. 16 to Sept. 22. Today’s polls kept them in play. End the filibuster? † Poll error in 2016 is calculated using averages of state polls conducted within three weeks of Election Day. But if the Data for Progress results are viewed through the lens of Mr. Biden’s quest for one last state with a comfortable lead, then none of the results are particularly good for him. It’s a Friday, and many pollsters will try to produce a final poll just before the debate Tuesday. But if you look at the national releases, you see stability, or even a bit of tightening. Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016. The results were eye-popping: It turns out that its previous poll results didn’t mean what many people — including me — thought they meant. Biden leads by 9 points against President Trump, who continues to face an uphill reelection battle. That’s enough for 258 electoral votes — just short of the 270 needed to win — if you also give him the states carried by Mrs. Clinton. Election Poll: Biden Maintains Lead Over Trump With Likely Voters Joe Biden leads by 9 points against President Trump, who continues to face an uphill reelection battle. Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Trump in the 2020 presidential election nationally by a substantial margin, according to the … The poll was taken before the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, which undoubtedly could have a big effect on public opinion. In this case, the huge difference between the Ipsos and YouGov results might be explained by a common bias in questionnaire design: acquiescence bias. Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m. eastern, we’ll... Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we’ll... KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Trial-Heat... Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for... Customize your map by changing one or more states. If you’re a Trump supporter, you may have found encouragement in YouGov numbers showing a mere five-point race nationwide and a tighter contest in Wisconsin and Michigan than other pollsters have found. We’ll see what the results suggest. It’s still possible that such voters exist. All Rights Reserved. Against Trump, Biden shows strength among white voters with a college degree, especially white women; women overall; young voters; and those who live in cities and suburbs. The ABC/Post poll is a high-quality survey. Be careful with new polls in Wisconsin and Michigan. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Nearly 6 in 10 say they support the candidate they do because of their view of Trump (29% say their Biden vote is more to oppose Trump, 30% say they are casting a Trump vote in support of him), while only 32% say Biden is the deciding factor (19% are voting in favor of Biden, 13% casting a ballot to oppose him). Taken together, though, they represent a more Republican-leaning playing field than the nation as a whole. Here’s a different way of looking at it: Mr. Trump can keep his hopes alive as long as he stays close in Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona, but he’d be in serious jeopardy if any one of them slipped out of play. Taken together, it seems we should consider pretty seriously that it’s a close race there at this point. It’s been a bit hard to know what to expect from Ohio. Texans were closely split on Mr. Trump’s proposal for a border wall. It has given us a really good look at several states where we received almost no high-quality polling in 2016, like Minnesota and Wisconsin. But there was nothing that would have changed the fact that the president was behind in polling in states worth upward of 350 electoral votes, including Ohio and Iowa, which Mr. Trump carried easily four years ago. This is the first time this election cycle the poll has screened for likely voters — this narrower group is the most likely to actually cast a ballot, compared to the larger group of people who are registered to vote. These polls share something important: They show tied races in states that Mr. Trump won fairly comfortably in 2016 (by nine in Iowa and by five in Georgia). This time, it comes as the Biden campaign begins airing advertisements in the state. And when it comes to these top issues, nearly all Trump and Biden supporters think their man is the right one for the job. CNN poll shows Biden lead over Trump narrowing, Hear Trump's response to NYT story about his taxes, Stelter: Trump will call this 'fake news.' But Mr. Biden holds just under a five-point lead in Pennsylvania and a two-point lead in Florida, according to our averages, even as he fights to a draw in places where Democrats haven’t won in decades. The biggest eye-popper is Ohio. That said, you could cut Mr. Biden’s lead in half and it would still be a strong result for Democrats. A poll from Monmouth University showed Mr. Biden up four percentage points among likely voters on average, his best result from a nonpartisan, live interview pollster there in several weeks. National polls still raise some questions. The district is traditionally Republican, but Mr. Trump carried it by only two percentage points in 2016. CBS/YouGov joined a long list of firms to show very close races in Georgia and North Carolina. Most high-quality polls are conducted over three or more days, so we’ll have to wait to see many full poll results. Just 1% of Biden backers say they would trust Trump over Biden to handle racial inequality in the US, and only 2% would trust Trump to handle the coronavirus outbreak. They’re all fairly close, and Mr. Biden’s worst result — trailing by one in Arizona — comes in the state where it seemed most likely that Mr. Biden had a good shot of claiming some security.

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